The effect of the P5+1 nuclear agreement with Islamic Republic on intensification of Syrian civil War

Kambiz Basetvat 


The Islamic Republic connection to Russia’s full involvement in the Syrian Civil War after Islamic Republic agreement with the P5+1 to slow down nuclear technology development in exchange for the partial cancellation of economics sanctions imposed by the UN and the US. The P5+1 agreement whit Islamic republic was finalized on July 15, 2015 and subsequently the billions of Dollars of blocked Iranian money into the hands of the Islamic republic regime commenced. Also seventy seven days later on September 30, 2015 Russian military might engaged in full scale combat against Islamists and US supported rebel fighters who were aimed to over through Bashar al-Assad’s regime. When Russiafully engaged in the Syrian Civil War Asad’s regime was in a dire situation and it was close to collapse; in spite of the Islamic Republic Regime’s full support of Asad’s regime with money, arms, and Hezb Allah fighters from Iran, Lebanon and Iraq.
What convinced the President of Russia Vladimir  Putin to engage in the Syrian financially costly Civil War with a massive air campaign? Was it because the political landscape in middle East was changing in favor of Sunni Islamists in Syria and against its committed ally Bashar Assad ; or the financial cost of Russia’s full involvement in the Syrian Civil War paid by Islamic Republic to protect its Jihadist Hezb Allah army in Lebanon and save its influence in Syria with the money handed over by the US as a result of the nuclear agreement with P5+1? Can the financial cost of a Russian intensified war in Syriabe traced back to the money Islamic Republic received after conclusion of its nuclear agreement with P5+1? The Islamic Republic’s officials, prior to the conclusion of the agreement, in advance declared that the financial benefits of such a nuclear agreement will not be injected to Iranian economy because it has been already spent. There were no explanations that where the money already has been spent.
Considering the sequence of actions of the actors involved in the nuclear agreement and Syrian Civil War  consisting of the Islamic Republic, the US, Russia and Syria it reveals who is really paying for the increased scale of destruction in Syria and causing more bloodshed . The Islamic Republic’s relations since its takeover of power in Iran in 1979 with the Soviet Union and later the Russian Federation has been taken shape with mutual interest in the grand scheme of world politics circling around competition and hostility with th US and the rest of  free world. The general foreign policy similarity of Russia and IR and their parallel interest in Syria increased and deepened their collaboration. As IR engaged more in the Middle East politics and beyond and expanded its political and military influence in Middle East, its contacts with Russia‘s middle and high ranking diplomats and leaders increased in frequency and official negotiations have been occurring more often.
When Islamist took over the political power in Iran in 1979 and removed Iran from the free world’s political camp the nascent Islamist regime embarked on opening a new front by Islamist Shariatist and Jihadist  against democracies of the free word by employing Iran’s accumulated wealth and modern secular government and educated population over more last fifty years. The Islamic Republic political Islamists gradually allied themselves with communist dictatorships like China, North Korea, Russia and none communist dictatorships of Venezuela and Syria. To advance its Islamic sect, the Islamic Republic friendship with dictators around the world advanced subject to their usefulness to IR aims in short and long term. The study of IR political goals primarily in Middle East and around the world no matter how ambitious or unrealistic it seems is beyond this paper. This paper concentrates on the Syria Civil War intensification due to the interference of Islamic Republic collaboration with Russia.
On August 28, 2014 Russian Foreign Ministry mentions the outline of reinvigorated relations between Russia and the Islamic Republic in a press release. It declared
Russia and IR relation “….have started to develop in a new way recently. The intensity of political contacts is growing; …”. The press release continued “The position of Russia and Iran matches on the Syrian problem.” It further goes on to say “Since national interest and the vision of many global processes by Russia and Iran match, they aspire to combine their efforts to accelerate social and economic development of both countries, …”[1]
Prior to the close collaboration of IR and Russia in Syrian civil War and after the P5+1  agreement there was an increased in negotiations between diplomats and government officials of the IR and Russia. These intensified contacts were the precursor to the Russian’s military full engagement in Syrian civil war which consequently altered the outcome on the battle field and saved Bashar Assad’s regime for the time being.
The general information  according to “The Ministry of Foreign affair of the Russian Federation”[2]reveals that in 2015 the number of official meetings in the level of ministers and vice ministers reach to thirty two occasions while fifteen times were in the level of ministers and six times on the level of deputy ministers. Prior to July 14, 2015, the day of agreement with the P5+1, there were first three negotiations in the level of deputy foreign ministers and later six involved foreign ministers. The rest of the meetings began after July fourteen, on August fifteen between ministers of IR and Russia. The period between July 14 and September 21, the day of intense Russian air force bumming runs began, there were four meetings equally divided among ministers and deputy ministers.
The continuation of contact consisting foreign minister Zarif of IR and Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov after September21 included seven more meeting.
Prior to the July 14 agreement three ministerial meeting took place between Zrif and Lavrov which points out that Lavrof was acting like go between the IR and the US. Lavrov having close relation with Zarif and its great interest to bring the US nuclear negotiations to a conclusion reveals a possible benefits for Russia.
It seems foreign ministers of IR and Russia in the final days of negotiations were closely collaborating to gain as many favorable terms from the US as possible. A press release of the meeting between Zarif and Lavrof on June 30 pointed out “… the possible further steps to eliminate the remaining obstacles on the way to a final mutually acceptable agreement.” This means getting more advantageous terms for IR from  President Obama’s administration while giving up the least amount of nuclear activity. Another key point of this meeting reported as follow “A greet deal of the discussion revolved around cooperation in the fighting against terrorism in the Middle East and North Africa, especially in the context of the Syrian crisis”. The subject of discussion reveals the context of package of  mutual interest and their connections for further actions.
The Islamic republic’s continuous agitation in neighboring countries to promote Shiisim, contrary to the US policy of political stability in the Meddle East, under the cover of the fight against terrorism found a collaborator in Russia. Their common goal to save Bashar Al Asad’s regime in Syria further cements their alliance. Since IR’s religious supremacy in the Meddle East determines its overall foreign policy and,  also IR is totally prepared to buy what ever the it is not able to carryout independently. Overall by considering the intensity of the IR and Russia recent relationship, the suggestion of IR buying Russia‘s full support in Syrian Civil War would be logical.
Since the Islamic Republic foreign ministry is full of pure propaganda, relying on declared information from Russia’s foreign ministry official can shed more light on IR financially beneficial agreement with P5+1, and Russia’s financial compensation by IR new found fortune for its full engagement in Syrian Civil War. The release of subjects of negotiations between IR and Russia in addition to its considerable frequency prior to July 14, 2015 agreement and prior to the intensification of Russia involvement in Syria Civil War leaves no doubt of the relationship between these events. The Islamic Republic had no problem to buy engagement of Russian’s military might in Syria as long as it could recuperate Iranian blocked money in foreign countries.
To get a definite and clear answer to the conclusion of the IR and the P5+1 nuclear agreement relation with Russia overtly participation in Syrian Civil War from two dictatorial and secretive regimes seems impossible. But by relying on an abundance of signals from relation thaw between IR and Russia after the end of blustering government of Ahmady Nejad and the new government of President of Islamic Republic Hasan Rohani with coning new foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif who has a deep understanding of the US President Obama’s administration because of his many years of residence in the US as the UN representative of IR one can see how a cynical conspiracy hatched. There are the reality of sequence of events which begs a logical analyses based on facts and the fact points to monetary compensation for Russia participation in Syrian Civil War by the Islamic Republic’s newly gained accesses to previously blocked Iranian moneys.